A Systematic Framework for Identifying Real-World Threats, by Danield MacLeod

Many preppers have their priorities out of alignment. From my experience, many focus almost entirely on the how of preparedness—what supplies to stockpile, what gear to buy, or what skills to learn. Much of this is driven by one-size-fits-all recommendations that may not fit their specific situation. At the same time, attention is often focused on dramatic, low-probability events such as economic collapse, EMPs, or pandemics, while far more likely threats are overlooked.

Now, I’m not saying that supplies, gear, skills, and major threats aren’t important—they are all extremely important for preparedness. Food, water, medical capability, tools, and training are foundational, and ignoring large-scale threats would be a critical mistake. The problem isn’t that preppers focus on these things; it’s that they often focus on them in isolation.  Without a clear understanding of which threats are most likely to affect them personally or how those preparations fit into a broader plan, well-intentioned preparation can become inefficient, unbalanced, or misdirected—wasting critical time and money in the process.

I came to this realization a few years ago because it described me. While I was preparing for a handful of large-scale scenarios, I was completely overlooking smaller, more probable threats. That became painfully clear when one of those “small” threats had a major impact on many people in my area. That experience forced me to reevaluate my entire approach to preparedness.  I set out to improve my planning—specifically, to identify the threats that actually mattered to me and to my family, both large and small, so I could address them in a rational and effective way.

In this search, I eventually stumbled upon the military concept that is commonly called an area study.  This is generally one of the first steps of military planning, where a specific geographic area is analyzed systematically to understand everything about that area that could affect military operations (see ATP 2-01.3, etc. to learn more).  I started using parts of this system and found that it was an improvement over where I was but didn’t fit the needs of civilian preparedness as well as I wanted.

I am an engineer by profession and have spent much of my career developing and improving processes. That background made me well-suited to adapt and refine the area study concept into something practical for everyday preparedness. Over the last several years, I refined and tested this approach until it evolved into a system that works extremely well for my family.  Nothing is perfect, and no system can identify every possible threat. However, I am far more prepared today than I was before adopting this approach.

I call this system The Ultimate Preparedness Framework. I wanted to provide SurvivalBlog readers with a usable overview so those inclined can implement it themselves.  The process can essentially be distilled into twelve steps:

Information Organization:

Before getting into the process itself, it’s important to address information management. These steps involve collecting a significant amount of data. I recommend storing this digitally for ease of updates, but also printing critical information and organizing it into a binder that serves as your “preparedness repository.”  Preppers should not rely solely on digital information. In an emergency, it is often far easier to grab a binder than to search through files or rely on powered devices that can fail at the worst possible moment.

Step 1 – Identify your three preparedness zones:

There are three concentric zones that you will identify and analyze that surround your home, bugout location, etc.

1. Area of Operation (AO) – This is the area immediately surrounding your home, retreat location, etc.  This is the area you’re going to put the most focus upon as it has the largest direct effect on your preparations.  In military parlance, the zone with this name is the area that they’re actively controlling, guarding, patrolling, etc. In a major emergency situation, it would be similar for you.
2. Area of Interest (AI) – This is the area immediately surrounding your AO.  In the military they treat this zone as a “buffer” around the AO that they monitor for incoming threats. This also applies to preparedness as this is the region that can contain threats that most directly impact your AO or can impact it the quickest.  But for preppers we can’t treat this area only in that way.  This is the area where you work, go to get groceries or take your kids to play soccer.
3. Area of Awareness (AA) – This last area is a larger region surrounding your AI.  From a preparedness standpoint we’re using this zone more like the military uses the AI – as a buffer.  But we’ll be setting the size much larger than typically needed in military situations.  We need to set this “buffer” largely based on the geography and population centers that surround your AI.  For my area, I’ve found that a radius of approximately 250 miles from my AO works pretty well, but your mileage may vary.  The key for this area is to have it big enough to capture any and all threats that could be generated that could affect your AO.  If there’s a military base, nuclear power plant, major city, etc. close enough to impact you directly in any way, it should be inside your AA.

Step 2 – Research your zones:

Once you’ve identified your zones, you need to find out as much as possible about these areas, the people that live there and everything that happens there.  There is no such thing as having too much relevant information.  Here are the types of things you should understand:

• Preparedness levels of the people around you (this is polled by FEMA annually).
• Demographics & worldview of the people around you.
• Population density and population centers near you.
• Climate – Heat, cold, rainfall, growing season, winter weather, etc.
• Natural events like flooding, earthquakes, hurricanes, tornadoes, volcanoes, etc.
• Crime rates, prisons, etc.
• Infrastructure – economic, transportation, electricity, petroleum, communications, etc.
• Strategic targets, resources, etc.

Step 3 – Identify the People:

People play a major role in how emergencies unfold. This is not about invading privacy, but about situational awareness and understanding how people and organizations are likely to behave under stress.  I break this into three categories:

• Neighbors – This is all the people who are around you every day.  I recommend starting with your AO and identifying everyone in this area.  Then, work your way out in a spiral pattern, identifying everyone as you go.  How far you go outward is really up to you.  You then research these people to learn key things about them that could affect you (good or bad) during an emergency.
• Groups – These are groups of people that are organized in some way so that this “group” may behave as one entity in some circumstances.  Because of this, these groups may have considerable influence during an emergency and must be properly understood.  This could be a homeowner’s association, city council, law enforcement, civics organizations, or even a militia group.  You’ll focus on your AO but also include those groups at the AI and AA level that can directly affect you in an emergency.  Don’t overlook state-level governments, emergency management, national guard, etc.
• Leaders / Key Players – For each of the above groups that you have identified, you need to go a step further on the leadership and/or key players.  These are people that will likely have a major effect on how that group handles an emergency.  By knowing as much as possible about them beforehand, you can try and anticipate how they may react before a situation ever arises.  This may allow you to mitigate any issues this may create for you and/or allow you to create alternate plans.

Step 4 – Identify Resources:

Identify all the resources that are present in your zones.  Preppers generally focus on the “bad.” But there are things present around you that can be a help in certain circumstances and you need to identify them before they’re necessary.  Here are some examples of things to look for:  Food & water, animal feed, farm equipment, garden supplies, fuel, medical supplies, guns, ammunition, campers & RVs, building materials, repair parts, etc.

There are many ways that you can use this information in preparedness.   The most likely use case would be if an event occurs you can use the list to pick up some “last minute” preps.  It’s especially useful in this case if places are sold out as you can work your way through places until one has what you need.

The other main use case would be in a large-scale emergency, and you need something.  If you’ve done your research, you’ll have a pretty good idea of where you may be able to obtain it.  I want to note that I’m not advocating stealing things in this case.  You need to be able to pay, barter, etc. and that’s something you need to prepare for.

Step 5 – Identify Threats:

Using your research, identify all the threats that can affect you.  There are three main categories of threats you need to consider:

• Major Threats – These are the big things like an EMP or economic collapse.  I spend a chapter giving info on several that should be considered.
• Area Threats – These are things that can affect your area specifically, like most natural disasters, a major employer going out of business, etc.
• Personal Threats – These are the everyday things that can bite you in the butt like a flat tire, house fire, allergic reaction, losing your job, etc.

Step 6 – Set Your Goals:

Use the information you’ve learned to set goals that make sense for you to achieve.

Start by setting an “end goal” – when you’re “done” prepping.  This isn’t something you’re likely to ever reach, but you should use it to measure every preparedness action or purchase against this goal.  If it doesn’t get you closer to this end goal, don’t do it.  Period.

Next, you’ll create goals for each threat you’ve identified.  This is the first step you’ll take for each threat and it’s important for the next steps.

I also recommend what I call category goals, which are goals for different categories of preparedness such as shelter, food & water, medical, protection, etc.  This is a good way of combining goals from individual threats so you have one goal that covers all of them for a given category such as food – this way you have a goal of how much food you need to handle all the threats you’ve identified.

Finally, you’ll set a short-term goal.  This is what you’re wanting or needing to focus on now (a part of your end goal).  This normally comes out of Step 9 below, but I wanted to mention it here with the rest of the goals.

Step 7 – Analyze and rate the threats:

Systematically analyze and rate threats based on likelihood, impact, and preparedness gaps. This allows you to prioritize realistically rather than emotionally.

Step 8 – Create plans for every threat:

I discovered a funny thing.  Once you’ve properly researched a threat, the things you need to do to prepare for it become essentially common sense.  But you still need to be regimented in your process, or you’ll miss things.  Planning can be organized as a simple 3 × 2 matrix:

Three phases:

• Preparation – These are the plans for what you’ll do before a threat occurs (what you want to do to prepare for it).
• Response – These are the plans for what you’ll do during a threat.  For a house fire, it would be to get out of the house, go to a rally point, etc.
• Recovery – These are the plans for what you’ll do after a threat is over (how you try and return to normalcy, if possible).

Two focuses:

• Your household
• Your neighbors/community.  Preparedness is rarely a solo effort. In larger emergencies, community cooperation often determines outcomes.  You need to consider what steps you need to take to enable this cooperation.

Step 9 – Prioritize your prepping activities:

Prioritize your threats so that you’re putting your efforts in the right places.  You can’t prepare for everything at once, so you need to put your effort into the threats with the highest needs and/or rewards based on your ratings.

Step 10 – Carry out your plans:
This is pretty simple – just do the things you’ve planned to do.

Step 11 – Practice your plans:

Conduct regular drills, etc., to ensure your plans work and everyone knows how to carry them out.  Test your preps to ensure they address the issues.

Step 12 – Do it again:

Information changes, people move, and new threats emerge.  Review progress as well as for any potential changes in your area that could affect your preparations.

Conclusion

This framework helped me identify many threats I had previously overlooked, and it has significantly improved my level of preparedness. I hope you find it as useful as I have.

About The Author

Daniel MacLeod is an engineer and preparedness author from rural Missouri. Raised in a Christian family where faith, hard work, and self-reliance shaped daily life, he combines that heritage with decades of engineering and problem-solving experience. Daniel focuses on clear thinking, smart planning, and realistic strategies—not hype or stockpiling—to help families prepare with confidence. He lives in the countryside with his wife and children, where he continues to refine the systems and principles he teaches.  He is the author of the book The Ultimate Preparedness Framework™.