Gunner Quinn
Welcome to SurvivalBlog’s Precious Metals Month in Review, where we take a look at “the month that was” in precious metals. Each month, we cover gold’s performance and silver’s performance and examine the factors that affected the metal prices.
WHAT DID GOLD AND SILVER DO IN FEBRUARY?
Even during the shortest month of the year, the precious metals markets packed in quite a lot of action. Prices ended basically back where they started, but there was a good deal of volatility in between.
Both silver and gold rose on each of the first three trading days of February. The gold price advanced 2.4% over that span, reaching an all-time high of $2,861 per troy ounce on Feb. 5th. During that same period the silver price added 3.5%. Silver gave back 47 cents on Friday, Feb. 7th before rebounding back above the $32/oz mark the following Monday. Spot gold closed above $2,900/oz for the first time ever that same day, Feb. 10th.
The metals bounced up and down throughout the week of Valentine’s Day. Gold touched yet another new record high of $2,929/oz on Thursday, Feb. 13th, yet it sold off rather swiftly the next day. On Tuesday, Feb. 18th, the yellow metal notched yet another all-time high above $2,930 while silver jumped 41 cents higher to $32.78/oz. The silver price reached its high point for the month on Feb. 20th, closing just six cents shy of the key $33/oz level.
The final week of February saw gold snap its streak of eight consecutive weekly gains, but not before it registered one more record-high price of $2,953/oz on Monday, Feb. 24th. The next day saw both precious metals suffer a swift downward correction: the gold price lost 1.3% during the trading session and spot silver shed 68 cents to fall to $31.65/oz. The same pattern repeated on Feb. 27th and 28th, with two more days of losses to close the month.
Silver erased all of its gains from the first three weeks of February to end at $31.08/oz, 0.2% lower than where it started. Gold finished at $2,853/oz, an increase of $60 (+2.1%).
FACTORS AFFECTING GOLD AND SILVER THIS MONTH
The focus of the metals market over the past several weeks has echoes of Jan from The Brady Bunch: tariffs, tariffs, tariffs! These newly-erected trade barriers are affecting the whole of the commodities complex, with prices climbing for natural gas, eggs, coffee, orange juice, and a slew of other natural resources.
As I cautioned in January, however, the explanation that tariffs are the primary force driving precious metals prices higher is likely to be proven incorrect in retrospect. Something much bigger is playing out with regard to a realignment of the global monetary order. A bold claim, to be sure. But let us consider the following:
There has been an alarmingly heavy flow of physical gold out of hubs in London and Switzerland and into vaults in New York. The volume of gold bars crossing the Atlantic is estimated to be 2,000 metric tons in a span of two months. In the meantime, the idea of auditing the gold held in Fort Knox is legitimately being floated around. Even the Treasury Secretary of the United States is openly talking about a new Bretton Woods, for crying out loud.
Not since the 1970s has the reality that gold is money been more glaringly present in the public consciousness. The normally staid Financial Times described it as “the unimaginable becomes imaginable.” These are nearly unprecedented developments.
Undoubtedly some of the volatility in the gold market can be explained by the unpredictable responses by governments around the world to the fast pace of changes being enacted by the Trump administration. Recent action in the broader financial markets indicates that money is rushing to the sidelines, with investors preferring to wait out the storm from safer harbors.
Aside from what’s going on in the White House, the U.S. Congress is considering a budget that purportedly cuts spending by $2 trillion. Although it is true that these fiscal austerity measures would be a welcome change from the outright profligacy we’ve come to expect from the D.C. Beltway, they will almost certainly have a deflationary effect—which, on the one hand, should help quell inflation, but on the other hand it may cause the economy to contract sharply for a time.
Meanwhile, there has been far less headline-worthy news about silver, other than some reasonable questioning about why governments don’t hold silver reserves in addition to gold. (Mexico, India, and the United States did so in the past, but to my knowledge the only one that does today is the Russian central bank.)
CENTRAL BANK GOLD PURCHASES
Note to readers: Most data about international gold reserves are delayed by a month. They are not typically reported to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and are instead compiled by private organizations such as the World Gold Council (WGC).
Total central bank gold purchases in 2024 clocked in at 1,045 tons. It was the third straight year exceeding 1,000 tons and the 15th consecutive year of net purchases.
According to the IMF, the Central Bank of Taiwan bought 1 ton of gold in October. It holds 424 tons in total.
The People’s Bank of China purchased 5 tons of gold in January, bringing its (officially reported) stockpile to 2,285 tons—equivalent to 73.45 million troy ounces.
The central bank of Uzbekistan added 8 tons of gold to its reserves in January. It has 391 tons in total.
The Reserve Bank of India bought 3 tons of gold in January. It holds 879 tons overall.
The National Bank of Kazakhstan bought 4 tons of gold in January, increasing its reserves to 288 tons.
The Qatar Central Bank added 1.3 tons of gold reserves in January for a total of 112.1 tons.
The State Oil Fund of Azerbaijan increased its gold holdings by 20 tons in the fourth quarter of last year. It bought 45 tons over the course of 2024 and holds 147 tons of gold in aggregate (21% of its total assets). The fund says it plans to buy more gold in 2025, making it perhaps the only sovereign wealth fund to state this publicly.
ON THE RETAIL FRONT
January tends to be the strongest month on the calendar in terms of silver sales at the United States Mint, and this year was no different. The mint sold 3,563,000 of its 1 oz American Silver Eagle coins during the month. It additionally sold 63,500 oz of Gold Eagle coins. A surprising amount of the gold coin sales were for half-ounce and quarter-ounce coins; this is probably because of bullion stackers who wanted a collection of the new 2025-dated coins across all denominations.
While still incomplete, the latest February production data show 514,000 Silver Eagles sold and 4,000 oz of gold coins sold.
MARKET BUZZ
Scrap silver companies are seeing a 50% reduction in volume in 2025 compared to 2021, suggesting the physical supply of silver remains abnormally tight.
In an almost unheard-of turn of events, the mainstream news is regularly talking about gold. Even CNBC and Bloomberg are covering the Treasury Department potentially revaluing its gold reserves, which technically still sit on the Treasury’s books at a value of just $42.22 per ounce.
Senator Rand Paul voiced support for a Fort Knox gold audit as the idea continues to gain momentum.
The Shanghai Futures Exchange experienced a record-high daily outflow of silver on Feb. 19th.
Exports of gold from Singapore to the U.S. hit a three-year high in January.
London’s gold shortage may be a symptom of global economic anxiety, according to ZeroHedge. London vaults have lost 11% of their silver inventory in the last two months. As has been widely discussed, much of those outflows are ending up in U.S. warehouses.
Accordingly, gold lease rates—i.e. the cost for banks to borrow gold—continue to skyrocket in London. Similarly, the fees to borrow shares of the GLD ETF are exploding higher.
Gold delivery notices for February on the COMEX hit a record high, even above the 2020 spike during covid.
Major Swiss and German gold refiners are experiencing stress and have resorted to either imposing hefty surcharges or suspending orders altogether. Switzerland’s gold exports in January swelled to 235 tons, with 193 tons going to the U.S. alone.
Sanctioned Russian gold bars are still finding their way to Swiss refineries.
7 out of 10 wealthy Koreans report investing in gold.
Banks in South Korea are seeing a shortage of silver bars amid rabid demand. The country’s government mint announced it is no longer supplying gold bars to commercial banks following the Korea Gold Exchange making the same move in November.
Likewise, banks in China are simply running out of gold. The Chinese mega-retailer JD.com is also out of stock of many gold bars.
Costco is facing delays in shipments of precious metal products. (Yes, even Costco sells gold and silver.)
Gold bullion banking is launching in Indonesia. It’s estimated that 1,800 tons of gold are held privately by Indonesian citizens.
Lawmakers in Wyoming approved a plan to buy $10 million worth of gold for a state strategic reserve.
Legislation advanced in Idaho to cut taxes by over $250 million, including removing any capital gains tax on gold and silver. The Montana legislature is currently considering a bill that would do the same.
The Virginia legislature unanimously passed a bill to exempt bullion from sales tax until 2027.
Goldman Sachs increased its year-end gold price forecast to the range of $3,100–$3,300/oz. Analysts at Bank of America have been “discussing” a gold price target of $3,500/oz.
The “In Gold We Trust” report published by Incrementum has a probability-weighted gold price of $4,000–$5,000 by the year 2030.
LOOKING AHEAD TO NEXT MONTH
We can hope that March will bring more clarity to the global trade war that’s brewing, but all bets are off at this rate. Even though across-the-board tariffs on Canada and Mexico were postponed until April 2nd, the president has already announced 10% tariffs on Chinese exports; 25% tariffs on all steel and aluminum imports; potential duties on copper imports; and a possible 25% tariff on all exports from the European Union. (This list is far from exhaustive.)
Maybe this high level of uncertainty will continue to fuel gold’s steady march higher, as we’ve seen throughout 2025. It will also be important to keep tabs on the U.S.-led negotiations between Ukraine and Russia, as well as the proposed resolution to the conflict in Gaza.
The Federal Reserve will meet again on March 18th and 19th. The Fed won’t have another opportunity to adjust interest rates until May.
As was suggested here last month, $33 per ounce was a key ceiling for the silver price to break through if a rally higher was in the offing. Alas, it fell just short of that milestone and never quite recovered. Next month will be another opportunity. I stand by my conviction that silver will ultimately outperform gold by the end of the year.
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About The Author: Everett Millman is a market analyst with Gainesville Coins.
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