The National Shooting Sports Foundation estimates 1,071,685 gun sales in May resulted in the FBI processing the purchaser’s name through its National Instant Criminal Background System (NICS). In May 2024, the figure—as estimated by NSSF after subtracting purpose codes for carry permit applications, renewals and other routine use of the system—was 1,089,117. The numbers reflect a 1.6 percent, year-over-year decline for the 31-day period.
May is the 70th month in a row that more than 1 million gun sales resulted in a NICS check. More were sold than the numbers reflect, however. Twenty-four states have at least one qualified alternative permit, which under the Brady Act allows the permit-holder, who has undergone a background check to obtain the permit, to purchase a firearm from a licensed dealer without a separate additional background check for that transfer. The total volume of NICS checks in these states does not include these legal transfers based on qualifying permits. NSSF does not adjust for these transfers.
Improvement On The Horizon?
Our crystal ball is out for repair, so we’re temporarily out of the prediction business, but there’s an interesting trend in the numbers. May’s year-over-year decline in estimated sales is less than the two previous months.
Using NSSF’s estimate, the total number of guns sold in April 2025 was higher than May 2025, coming in at 1,174,294. The month is always a good one for retailers, but that figure reflects a 3.4 percent decline when compared to the same period in 2024. It’s also more than double last month’s drop.
In March, sales were estimated at 1,386,724. The figure reflects a decline of around a 3.8 percent when compared to the same 31-day period last year—even worse.
By comparison, May’s 1.6 percent drop in year-over-year sales is a nice improvement. No, it’s not zero, but is seems to be moving steadily that direction.
Variables in the equation, which include manufacturer incentives, rebates, sales and more, cloud the picture. Any sort of prediction based on a single month’s numbers border on soothsaying, but the forecast looks to be a bit brighter now than it has been for gun manufacturers during the past four years.
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