Sometimes, when you are lost, often the best course of action if you can is to go back to a known starting point. Trying to figure out where we are on a historical timeline if we could be going into a Third World War, you first need to know how we became embroiled in the First and Second World Wars. Without the First, you would not have the Second. Nation-states need to have certain preconditions to have a world war. The First World War — known back then as the “Great War” — was a conflict was precipitated by the assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand and his wife Sofie of the Austro-Hungarian Empire. As I am writing this, it is June 28th which is the 111th anniversary of their death in Sarajevo. My lineal male relative did not know it that day that in a little over three years he would end up going back to the Old World as a doughboy in puttees engaged in vicious trench warfare. (One of his friends was severely gassed that he spent the balance of his life in an “old soldier’s” home.)
There were four causes to this war which are expressed in historical circles through the acronym MAIN, which stands for: Militarization, Alliances, Imperialism, and Nationalism. Without each one of these components in a chain, the First World War would not have occurred. Prior to this event, roughly one hundred years of peace had been the norm on the European continent — except for two brief wars: The Crimean War (1853-1856) and the Franco-Prussian War (1870-1871).
If asked as to the date of the Second World War, most Americans who were generally historical aware meaning that they did not fall asleep in a second semester beginning American or European History class would say September 1, 1939 when Germany “invaded” Poland. Most historians would say that is a generous starting date as unchecked aggression actually began earlier. These are four possible earlier starting dates: Japan invaded Manchuria on September 18, 1931, October 3, 1935 when Italy began its invasion of Ethiopia, July 17, 1936 the beginning of the Spanish Civil War which was the testing ground for many of the technologies of the Second World War, or July 7, 1937 the beginning of the Second Sino-Japanese War. Without the Second World War, we would not likely have had the technological progress to be able to have a Third World War of massively destructive proportions.
Wars usher in new technologies which are then often adapted for civilian concerns. For instance, almost everyone reading this has bought off-the-shelf clothing with a size such as small, medium, large, or sizes beyond instead of having everything made to order as was previously the case. The concept of sizing and statistical modeling of clothing sizes made based on body type dimensions began in the “War Between the States” known by many people as the “Civil War” of the period of 1861-1865. During this conflict, clothing was mass produced in the North in four buckets with most people fitting somewhere in between. Given the cannon fodder nature of the conflict, many of the individuals wearing it likely would not be around for long. So, unless you were an officer, there was not likely any tailoring.
Some of the inventions first introduced during the Second World War that are in use today are rockets, jet airplanes, helicopters, atomic weapons (then nuclear weapons and energy), computers, penicillin, and synthetic rubber. Each one of these would not have likely occurred for many years or even ever had there not been massive funding on an industrial scale. Some of these inventions were for an emerging need that people did not believe existed until it was introduced, something that was easily accepted to the point of now overuse (antibiotics), or something that was fringe used by hobbyists for many years until becoming commonplace (personal computers). For instance, car tires prior to the invention of artificial rubber were often made of natural gum rubber imported primarily from Malaya and during this time period, supplies were cut off. The demands of the Second World War created an impetus for artificial rubber production and this eventually replaced natural gum rubber for most uses. During the recent shortages from a few years ago, we proactively replaced one set of one of our truck’s tires that had over 80,000 miles. Hearing many stories from elderly relatives who lived in an environment of shortages and rationing was a good enough reason to replace the tires even though there was still tread “life” left on them.
The Ends of Eras
The era of closely ordered soldiers marching to the cadence of musical instruments (fife and drum) and horse cavalry has been over for some time. However, at the time when perceptive individual realized that era had ended, there were individuals who believed that there was a future for them. The Crimean War and the “Charge of the Light Brigade” demonstrated the folly of cavalry charges against even primitive well-emplaced rapid-fire artillery, but it took many generations to realize the futility of a cavalry charge given rapid fire weapons. Contrary to popular belief, the Polish cavalry never charged Panzer tanks in the opening stages of the Second World War. This is a persistent rumor of what happened at the Battle of Krojanty where elements of the Polish cavalry charged a German infantry battalion, encountered mechanized German units and smartly withdrew. The last cavalry charge in United States history took place in the battle of Bataan in the Philippines in January 1942. It was successful, and the horses that survived came to an unfortunate end (they were eaten, as rations were running low).
Many readers will also recognize that the era of battleship is over, but few people today realize that aircraft carriers today are in the same precarious position that General/Colonel Billy Mitchell demonstrated over a hundred years ago with dreadnoughts (battleships).
(An Aside: The Army’s promotion/rank system often leads to a lot of confusion between temporary ranks in times of military expansion and “permanent” ranks. Eisenhower was a “temporary” Lieutenant Colonel in the National Army of 1918, demoted to a Captain at the end of the Great War for the smaller regular Army, promoted to Major, then demoted back to Captain and then promoted to Major staying that rank for almost 12 years.)
To demonstrate that the era of battleships was at an end, Billy Mitchell used biplanes and fairly primitive munitions while being constrained by Navy admirals on how the demonstration could occur. As a general rule, if you want to have a test give the opposing team as much rope and free rein as they want, so you can get the best possible results which then you can mitigate against in a potential future conflict. Placing artificial constraints limits the usefulness of a test, but usually that is the reason why it is done. Billy Mitchell’s 1921 test demonstrated that the era of the battleship was over, but the United States built ten more battleships at enormous expense after the expiration of the Washington Naval Treaty of 1922 which was an arms control agreement limiting construction of capital ships.
History has proven Billy Mitchell to be a true visionary, but dissidents in life are generally disdained at best and at worst are subject to harsher penalties. Billy Mitchell was court-martialed for insubordination for statements he made including that the Army and Navy demonstrated “almost treasonable administration of the national defense,” found guilty (the only not guilty verdict was supposedly from General MacArthur who later was fired during the Korean Conflict for similar critical statements), and died in 1936 five years before everything he said was proven correct in the billowing fires of Pearl Harbor.
It is said that the Spanish Civil War (1936-1939) was the proving ground for weapons and tactics which were employed in the Second World War. Modern warfare of combined forces of airplanes and mechanized vehicles was first demonstrated at scale in this conflict. New weapons were tested. Currently, the Russian-Ukrainian conflict is a proving ground for new weapons. The era of the foot soldier who ideally is a skilled marksman (a drone pilot or in the future of A.I. accurately delivering drone payloads is more effective than a few hundred grain projectile at ensuring target destruction), and even main battle tanks are in their twilight stage. Tor those who understand history, that era is over. The idea of individual patrols or even tanks in open fields is often a foolish anachronism, given the recent growth of drone technology.
A drone pilot is the new apex predator of the battlefield. The amount of time and effort to train a drone pilot is not comparable to the extensive training and skills of a fixed-wing or rotary aviator. A drone on the battlefield is a force multiplier. Many of these skills required to be an effective drone pilot/operator are learned in typical amusements of young men such as video games. Given the pace of A.I. development, drones may soon be completely computer-deployed deployed analyzing targets on the fly to most effectively use the resources at hand, thus eliminating the need for even a “pilot.” Many centuries ago, my ancestors were nobles, including some knights. Outfitting a knight with arms and armor was an enormous expense. Many knights found their end at Agincourt in 1415, dying in the swarms of arrows. English archers had at least a 10:1 kill ratio (with some reports claiming even higher) of English versus French soldiers. William Shakespeare immortalized this in his play Henry V.
The English used a longbow that was a crude, cheap, and effective weapon that could be wielded easily by illiterate peasants. The resplendent knight of that day is analogous to a tank today: heavily armored, formidable on paper, but ultimately very vulnerable on the modern battlefield. Expensive armored vehicles and well-trained infantry are both incredibly vulnerable to drones. The infantry soldier in an open field has very little opportunity to fight back. The world has changed. Few people realize it. Trillions of dollars will be spent on acquiring obsolete weapons systems as they have an army of lobbyists behind them.
Radical changes in tactics will be necessary. This often meets incredible resistance from legions of men who matured under the old system. This level of thinking is counterproductive and extremely dangerous. In the past century, American infantry have had to suffer under inferior weapons systems because of reluctance to embrace new realities. For instance, the Krag-Jorgensen rifle and its cumbersome side box magazine with the cutoff switch was reportedly adopted because of the belief that soldiers should individually load rounds instead having access to be able to rapidly load and fire because they would be “wasteful” with the ammunition. This firepower disadvantage and the relatively anemic cartridge compared to the Spanish Mauser resulted in a firepower disadvantage. The Krag overall was an improvement over the single-shot Springfield Trapdoor Rifle.
One of my lineal multiple great-grandfathers was at the Battle of San Juan Hill. I own a Krag. The high velocity .30-40 Krag cartridge became a famous deer hunting round. It fed many families during the Great Depression with large numbers of these rifles and ammunition sold at discount prices in surplus auctions. If you are looking for pre-1899 firearms, an antique Krag is one of the premier firearms in terms of that era. The important point is that deer don’t shoot back: In a skirmish you may need to throw out large amounts of lead downrange in order to be able to safely maneuver and the Krag is deficient in terms of reloading compared to a Mauser with an easily fed box magazine — much as a Garand is superior to that same Mauser.
Currently, the era of the foot soldier as currently practiced is over. Massed line charges with the command to fix bayonets and go over the top into no man’s land became obsolete by the First World War, but the lesson took millions of repetitions to learn. A generation of men was destroyed in the trenches. These men not reproducing further reduced the genetic vigor of Europe. In the first and bloodiest day at the Battle of the Somme in 1916, the British suffered over 57,000 casualties, with over 19,000 dead. For comparison, during the Vietnam Conflict, 246 soldiers died in the bloodiest day during the height of the Tet Offensive which was a communist propaganda victory even though the North Vietnamese actually lost the battle. During the entirety of the Vietnam Conflict, 58,220 Americans were killed in more than a decade of involvement.
One important lesson from the First World War is highly relevant to individuals practicing “drone defense.” During the First World War, trap and skeet shooters were reportedly recruited and utilized shotguns to attempt to grenades before they landed in the trenches. The humble shotgun is now seeing a renewed life on the modern battlefield in defeating the new foe: drones.
(To be continued tomorrow, in Part 3.)
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