Gunner Quinn
The single biggest reason for failure is failure to plan. “When you fail to plan, you plan to fail” Another way to think of this is: planning is being prepared. That is prepping in a nutshell!
This is stated in many publications and articles about many subjects. I have experienced this more times than I can remember in my life. What I have noticed the most is the repetition of this error by both people and groups. Sometimes this seems to persist and someone else “helping” them out of the repeat failure to plan. It is a mistake the first time. The second time might be extenuating circumstances or a different cause. After that it is a failure to learn and accept responsibility — which I do not respect. There has been a big push to “drive them” by management if someone is failing to plan. Personally, this results in more work for someone who plans and less accountability on someone failing to do so.
For my own future, I have many plans for many different paths life may take.
My Specifo Plans
I work in Manufacturing, it is not a question of: “Will I be subject to a layoff?” No, it is: “When will I be subject to a layoff?” So, what are my plans for that?
Savings to pay bills while looking for a new job
Keeping an eye on what is affecting both my place of work and any related events. Are one or more of our customers struggling? Is the parent company about to go through a rough time which will affect my factory?
Get a different job before you get laid off. If you have a varied skill set then you can move to a different industry or market which is thriving. I have done this a couple times in my career.
Know your worth and keep in mind you may be more likely to lose your job because of it. For example, you have 20+ years experience and are paid accordingly. Someone with very little experience and does the same type of work looks like they would do just as well for much less money. They probably won’t do just as well, but to someone in corporate lmanagement who is looking at cutting costs? You will be laid off.
Planning for the medium term: I have been divorced for more than 10 years. Both my children will be in college in a few years. At that point, I would like to live further off in the country. I would not be uprooting them from their friends and environment they grew up in or leaving them. My parents passed years ago and my siblings all have their own plans. So when I am ready and able to I will be moving to a better remote location for my farm!
Shortly, I can begin to take money from my retirement accounts. My house will be mainly paid for, no other loans and I have money in my savings account. My goal when I move is to have no mortgage on the new land, house, and outbuildings. I am well on track to achieve this and plan on working part-time if things do not go as ideally planned. Part-time employment opportunities will be much more flexible for my skill set. I will not be preparing for a move or nestegg at that point. It will be as a backup to the preparations and planning.
Examples from my planning list:
1.) A rough idea of the balance remaining on mortgage and a rough idea of purchase price for a remote farm now. Plan for a comparable difference, in five years.
2.) Plan on all these expenses being 1.5 times as much as a safety factor. Rarely do expenses go down, there is always something unexpected which will happen.
3.) Plan on historical retirement savings for next 5 years from work. Plan on paying down the same amount every month on my mortgage and increasing my savings accounts.
4.) Plan on roughly same amount in the future as in current retirement accounts.
5.) A “3rd Plan”, if things go south.
6.) Have additional backup plans if things really go south.
7.) Know approximate medical expenses, food, heat, and charity savings to use.
8.) Have tangibles stored:
– Food: long-term storage types, canned goods and fresh food of many types.
– Tools, mechanics and garden gathered over the past 30+ years
– Ammo and firearms
– Medical supplies, basic and more advanced up to my training level.
Note: Plan on using up the end of the year FSA money which will be lost buying either first aid supplies or kits.
– Coins, several precious metal types such as silver, gold and platinum.
Diversify so there will be worth regardless of how the economy is when needed to barter with or sell.
– Plan on growing food and raising animals I have experience with.
Experiment with others over time but don’t plan on having a reliable average yield.
Learning takes time and some planned losses due to mistakes,
9.) Do the math on all of the above. Determine what risks you are willing to take and what safety factors you want. Safety factors are typically multiplication factors. For instance if you trust that a retreat will be twice as expensive as your purchase price to get setup to what you want. Cost multiplied by 2. By having the resources, I am planning on having many different resources to fall back on if needed. Not reacting and having nothing prepared.
10.) Plan to learn. There are several magazines such as Self-Reliance and Backwoods Home that seasonally publish new topics every three months. And they are for the upcoming seasonal weather to give you time to plan. I save all these hardcopies so I can go back when something I have read about comes up. Learn from others and save time and effort.
11.) Plan on being there if my children, family, or friends need help (extras of all the above) and Charity.
12.) Have other locations and ideas in mind to change gears/modify plans. Politics shift and localities become intolerant of beliefs. Some ideas may not work in the future and technology is constantly changing. You may have training and experience on a software package that becomes obsolete shortly after you move. Or you discover your original ly planned locale is prone to flooding — or a new resort is about to be built nearby.
13.) Plan on getting to know your neighbors once you arrive. Research the area and visit often before committing to anything! This has been re-enforced to me through ny work with many companies. You research and interview there, but months after you start the reality sets in. There is the way people act/[resent themselves and they way they really are when things are not going so well. Having distance and boundaries/fences help if they are respected. (Both at work and home.)
Other Considerations
I have many tools for farm life and experience using all of them and maintaining them with spares. I have been growing vegetables, growing fruit trees, raising chickens and ducks, plus a beehive. I use a wood stove for heat and have plenty of trees to provide firewood. When I move I take all the experience and tools with me. Starting out with a wealth of knowledge and many things to fall back on.
I am planning on creating a backup for manufacturing some of my own consumables and tools. By backup, I mean simple mills, lathes, and other metal working machines.
Manufaturing Trends
There are definite trends that many people of observed over the years in manufacturing that have already “hit the fan” years ago, to wit:
1.) Experienced people retiring across all industries. 25 years ago most workers in the factory were in their 50s and 60s. I was one of the youngest there and most did not want to learn “manual machines” or get dirty. Now most of the experienced people have retired and taken the knowledge with them.
2.) Most argue CNC and robots will take over these jobs. What they fail to think about is:
– These machines need to be programmed, this is not a low skill job. Also very expensive if mistakes are made, robots and CNC machines make it the same every time. Now you have something making defective parts 24/7.
– Cheaper, less skilled labor cares less about their job. If there is a mistake, “the machine did it” not that they made an error. And if they get fired they will go work at a retail store for the same money.
– There are always short run, small volume jobs which are higher $$$ value but no worth setting up a CNC and robot to run. Skilled labor is much, much cheaper.
– Ii your raw materials are expensive, sending work to a cheaper location which yield higher scrap rates is more expensive. Even if the raw materials are not very expensive, a much higher scrap rate and missed deliveries will shut down the business.
– It always costs more to replace an experienced trained employee.
– Hiring someone new and paying them more than the experienced person training them? This happens very often, people close to retirement might stay but will resent this and checkout of work. More likely they will leave or train the new person poorly.
3.) Global issues affect all industries.
A.) Covid shutdowns. Many local factories retooled to provide masks, shields and air filters. Most factories were also considered “essential” all of a sudden. No one wanted to work there but the realization they had to stay open was known.
B.) Materials flow. Rare earth cutbacks from certain countries caused global shortages and price spikes. Logistics issues with covid and “just in time” manufacturing. Many factories only had a week of raw materials on hand. They now have 8-10 week lead times on materials and tooling.
C.) Wars, trade wars and embargos. If something can not be made locally OR the raw materials are imported or exported. Industries have layoffs.
Risk Mitigation
All of the afforementioned can be mitigated with planning and preparation. Many, many companies “plan” on reacting which is much more likely to work out if you have a reaction plan. Such as reacting to someone getting hurt, natural event, someone leaving the company, et cetera. If no thought is put into these things are always worse. Someone gets hurt, no one knows where the first aid kit is. No one knows what your location is or to direct the ambulance on where they can access the facility, doors or area. No one knows how to shut down the machine that caused the injury safely and someone else gets hurt.
Personal Planning
My personal plans? Buying my own smaller scale machines which are older and well respected for accuracy and reliability. I can then make and repair my own parts as well as take on small jobs which pay well. Having non-CNC-controlled tools and non-electronics dependent machinery will be key. Not only for an EMP event but for resilience. Electronics become obsolete and no longer manufactured or with extreme lead times.
My plan is to duplicate this with any farm machinery I obtain as well. New or restored enough to be reliable with a spare on hand. I do not need a garage queen machine that I spend more time working on than using. Having machinery also allows for more jobs and work. You charge for the job done, using a machine you get done more in a shorter time, more money for hours worked.
Again: Planning is prepping, ideally at a logistics level. Think long-term and thoroughly, not rushing to move or needing everything “right now”. Trying to rush into being ready is not much better than running out just before a snowstorm for ice melt and a show shovel. You know you need these every winter and at the last minute the stores will be sold out and/or very expensive. Plan ahead, you will not only be taking care of yourself. You will leave more for those who are reacting at the 11th hour.
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