Gunner Quinn
Editor’s Introductory Note: This is part of a multi-part article series on retreats written by a Christian farmer who is praying and searching for a wife. Please prayerfully consider all of the topics that he discusses.
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Economics of Land in the 21st Century
Arable land is no longer free nor available at reduced cost. As you learned in Part 2, over a hundred million acres of land in our country were sold for some sweat, initiative, and a small filing fee during the main Homestead years from the 1860s to the 1930s. Even earlier, land was available for a relatively reasonable price. By 1820, the price of land in the U.S. actually fell from 2 dollars per acre to 1.25 dollars per acre.
Whenever people quote that land sold for $1.25 per acre back then our currency was backed by gold and silver. When adjusting for gold prices, you can consider any 20 dollars in gold dollars to be roughly an ounce (actually it is .9675 troy ounces for a Double Eagle Gold piece) when making quick calculations if someone said something sold for a certain amount in the distant past. In JWR’s novel Patriots, we were reintroduced to this concept where in this speculative fiction where the vast majority of Federal Land would sell at a dollar in silver per acre. Extrapolating this to today you can determine if land is more expensive today than in the past. If you find land today that is worth 10,000 dollars an acre, this land in the past could have sold for a $1.25 in silver. One dollar and 25 cents of Constitutional money would sell for about thirty dollars for common circulated silver coinage as of when this is being written. (November, 2024). Imagine being able to buy good land today for thirty dollars an acre. Sadly, your current “dollars”, like all fiat currencies are worth less and could someday be worthless.
The difficult part for most Americans is that we are currently in an environment where economic opportunities are declining and contracting for many young people. The growth of technology has impacted not only the farm economy where far fewer farmers are needed since 1960, but across all industries. Some forecasters have projected potentially hundreds of millions of job losses as “Artificial Intelligence” (AI) grows in capability over the coming decades. Starting with the growth in automation in manufacturing which also led to the offshoring of factories in the 1980s and 1990s, many areas of the country have been economically decimated from previous job losses as plants closed and no new jobs were available in those areas. This led to families choosing either to dig in or uproot themselves and each one of those choices leads to vastly different outcomes and potential futures for themselves and their families. This is in many ways similar to what occurred when farm families were affected by the economic panics and depressions of the 1880s. This was illustrated by the farm family that I mentioned in Part 2. This was a family that formerly owned a parcel that my family purchased more than a century later.
I will discuss a few possibilities for future economic environments.
The best economic future for our nation would come following a return to sound money, paying off the national debt, and a moratorium on all deficit spending except during a declared war. Prices would be relatively stable. Right now, people see higher portfolio balances and think that is a sign of economic health. I would rather see stable prices with sound money so that I could invest for the long term without concerning myself about a decline in purchasing power.
During the 19th Century in England, there were many gentlemen who could invest and receive regular income denominated in gold sovereigns. They were the beneficiaries of England’s 19th Century economic strength including the strong Pound Sterling. A similar period would be for people in the 1980s and 1990s in the United States as prices remained stable as precious metals prices by the late 1990s dipped below $300 per ounce for gold and under $5 pewr ounce for silver, at some points. Land prices stabilized and began increasing during this time. Farmers were recovering from the 1980s “farm bust” cycle where in the previous decade of the 1970s there was a large boom in land prices, precious metals, and anything to hedge against the high inflation.
The worst case would be a Weimar 1923 or Zimbabwean-style hyperinflation and fiat money collapse. This topic is thoroughly covered throughout Mr. Rawles’ five-volume Patriots novel series. I encourage anyone to first read the Patriots series to see a possible future currency collapse scenario. Having a well-stocked retreat out in the country could be the premier domestic solution to mitigating the effects of a currency collapse.
Another scenario would be a continuation of more of the same. I know people who complain about the price increases over the last 30 years. My dad said that back in the late 1990s, he could buy gasoline at much less than a dollar a gallon, and prices were remarkably stable. Economically, the period between the 1980s and the problems of 2007 was called the “Great Moderation.” Great Moderations are better than Great Depressions. During the Great Depression, there was deflation with prices falling. The price of farm commodities fell dramatically. There were points during this period where the cost to grow, harvest, and sell a commodity was more than it would sell for. Rapidly falling wages when people still owe non-adjusted money is a bad situation to be in.
One of the reasons that my family insists on being debt-free is the experiences of many including farmers who survived in the deflationary environment of the 1930s. These stories are something that give us pause anytime someone suggests taking on debt. Yes, this current inflation is bad, but a doubling in prices over twenty years is much better than a doubling of prices in a day, like in Weimar Germany in 1923.
The current inflationary environment where prices have increased a little over 20 percent since 2021 is significant. Don’t think for a second that I am thinking of diminishing this latest dose of inflation, but if you think that the last three and a half years were bad, there were many periods that much worse within the lifetimes of some of the older readers. If you are a younger reader like me, then you should ask your parents, grandparents, or other relatives what it was like to build a home, have a business, or buy groceries during the 1970s inflationary period. All inflation hurts savers and people on fixed incomes. It erodes confidence in the currency unit.
Another potential scenario is a recurrence of 1970s inflation. Prices during this period increased dramatically. This was true of land, houses, cars, and almost anything of value. Precious metals in this inflationary period soared. Gold went from a pegged $35 per ounce to a free-floating $850 per ounce. Many imports such as cars doubled in price very quickly as the dollar was no longer pegged to gold. This Nixon Shock of 1971 led to stagflation which is stagnant growth, high inflation, and high unemployment. Prices of some items increased by 10 fold and many salaries did not keep up with inflation. Couples had a difficult time affording homes with mortgage interest rates peaking at over 18 percent by the early 1980s. The economic policies of the 1970s eventually led to the election of President Reagan. His 1984 reelection campaign showcased the rebound of the economy best illustrated through the “It’s Morning in America” ads.
Another possibility is of a “It’s Morning in America” cycle where the incoming presidential administration results in another “Era of Good Feelings” where Americans unify over the vast majority of what binds us as a people and deemphasize divisive elements. It will be difficult, but not impossible. By carefully allocating tax revenues and achieving growth to pay off nearly $36 trillion in debt while maintaining promises of “entitlements” to millions of people.
The confidence that people have affects what they are willing to do. If you knew that the economy would crash in the next few years, you would make different allocations than if you knew that we would enter a remarkable boom cycle where goods would become even more available at lower prices with higher quality and that your job would pay you even more for less work. But you just do not know. This is why intelligent preppers ready themselves for a variety of scenarios.
On land ownership: Currently, land prices in our area are relatively high. This is causing difficulties for young people who want to move with their growing families to farms and to be able to have the positive experience of living in the country. Remember all farms are not retreats, but it is fairly easy to convert most farms into retreats. I currently know of one young family man who wants to move out of the city, but the high price of farmland is keeping him from being able to achieve the dream of rural land ownership. This young man is also a prepper, so the farm would also be a retreat. (His story will be covered in Part 5.) Land prices are generally a reflection of the economy and productive capacity of the land. Years ago, it was much easier to afford land as the land-to-income ratio was more affordable. In simpler terms, it woudl be a lot easier to come up with $1.25 dollars in silver coin for an acre of land if average salaries were $50 per month. You could save up for land and back then you could even homestead it, for little cost.
Solutions and Opportunities
There is a much easier road to success and it is very historical, but very few people are applying it anymore. This concept best applies to young women and their families. It is called marriage. One of the primary objectives of parents years ago was to guide their children in life. This included helping them to find and marry successful individuals — especially their daughters marrying successful men. Many times it starts with friendships with other similarly minded families and this has often resulted in marriages.
Success is more likely with planning. There is a saying which has relevance to our discussion: “Those who fail to plan, plan to fail.” Out on a farm, if you want to harvest something on a regular and repeated basis, you have to plant it. That is the simplest way of explaining that effort earlier mostly yields to results later. When our winter wheat crop is harvested, it happens because planning and work occurred in the previous year. If the wheat wasn’t planted, no crop would be harvested except a sparse “volunteer” crop. (Volunteers are leftover seeds from the previous harvest that somehow got under the soil. They result in very little germination.) If you put little effort into a task then you will likely get few results. The key concept is planning.
When I was in corporate America, I saw so many people who were just going through the motions: treading water, complaining about this and that, and not even taking advantage of all of the opportunities that the company was offering. Building a retreat or the first step of purchasing land requires a gigantic series of planning events. If people are not comfortable with planning then they are less likely to succeed with complex situations such as owning a business or being able to develop a retreat.
When I travel on vacation and it comes up in conversation that I live on my family’s farm, I often hear some of the common misconceptions we hear about farming that do not apply to our situation. Some people think that people who live on farms have an unkempt appearance and wear unusual clothes. None of these apply to me and the people that I know. When I go into town, I wear normal clothes, not clothes that I would wear while doing outside chores.
Most people who we know who live on farms are successful and educated. (Or they have a lot of knowledge if they do not have formal degrees, like me). We are successful people maintaining an interest in multiple businesses. We have no debt and often have people asking us to invest in their businesses. Since I am the youngest family member on the land, I often keep watch on what is happening more than the older generations at the farm. So usually the phone calls get referred to me. Last week, an older man instead of asking for a senior member at the farm called just to talk to me asking for my advice about a business idea that he had.
When I was in corporate America, I learned an important concept. The higher you are in a company, the less likely you will do any actual physical work. Most of it is planning, forecasting, managing, negotiating, and a lot of meetings. (Sometimes when you are really effective at your job multiple people want you to be at their meetings, so this leads to trying to balance which meetings to attend and which to decline and asking for the notes to be sent.) The most successful people actually knew how to do the “shop floor” work and most of them were very good at it. Many times the best people involved in production get promoted, and then promoted further.
Since I have so many business interests, I do not currently have time to do everything on our farm as it would not be an efficient use of my time. My family has always believed in knowing how to do things, but unless I can figure a way to increase the hours in the day or multiply myself I cannot do everything all the time. Like most businesses, we have very qualified people that we hire to do work when we do not have the time. We have even been able to go on vacations while the harvest is occurring and have our check in the mailbox when we arrive back home. If a young woman would be concerned that she is going to need to do “farm” work, there is none that she needs to do. Of course, if she wants to do something such as gardening, then she is welcome to do that. But no farm experience is necessary.
There is something important that is a good survival tip even if you are a married man living in the city to learn how to do things that your wife or grandmother knows how to do. Tell them that you want to learn and usually they are glad to spend time with you. One thing that my mom and grandma always emphasized is to learn how to cook and do the things that they know how to do in case they could not for some reason. I know how to cook and bake. These skills could be valuable at some point. I may not become the cook for a wagon train on the trail, but I could have a wife someday who would appreciate her husband cooking her a meal.
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Message from Single Farmer:
My family and I are long-term preppers who currently live on a large farm that produces enough food for hundreds of people. Our farm will be our retreat. It has taken more than three generations of people to achieve this level of preparedness. This article was not sent for the blog’s writing contest. I am trying to provide you with what could be useful information and hopefully to find some family reading these blog articles who would be a good potential candidate for our retreat. Or perhaps a father reading this with a single daughter who is seeking to be a traditional wife. This article series will be useful for those who currently live at their country properties which can be activated into retreats or for those who would like to increase their level of preparedness. Please read my letter that was posted in SurvivalBlog in August with more details about me and what I am praying to find in a wife.
(To be concluded tomorrow in Part 5.)
Read the full article here