Home Outdoors Avoiding the Worst Case Scenario – Part 4, by M.B.

Avoiding the Worst Case Scenario – Part 4, by M.B.

by Gunner Quinn
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(Continued from Part 3. This concludes the article.)

More Stupid Things

“This ain’t Dodge City, and you ain’t Bill Hickock.”
Quigley Down Under (1990 movie)

The most obvious stupid thing is willingly getting involved in illegal or immoral activity. I’ve watched several people destroy careers, relationships, and everything they cared about by involvement in what at first probably looked like a quick and easy way to make some extra money. The majority of these cases involved the illegal drug trade, and their families often suffered even more pain than the individuals committing the illegal acts.

Another bad mistake that can quickly turn into a worst-case scenario is intervening in the conflicts of others—especially strangers. Trying to break up a fight is one of the most dangerous things police are called upon to do, and they have tasers, sidearms, and body armor. And frequently they have one or more other officers available, for this kind of call. They also have radios and can call for more backup if the situation is escalating.

Why, then, do people feel called upon to try to stop a fight between people they don’t know? I can see the temptation to save someone from harm, but you don’t know what’s happening, who the participants are, and if any of the bystanders are on one side or the other and will jump in if someone tries to intervene. Fights also have a way of escalating, often with lethal weapons. Your intervention may give one of the people a chance to draw a knife or a gun. No, thank you.

I once witnessed a brutal assault involving two large men attacking another man. I had no way of telling what was happening and moved behind a brick mailbox and called 9-1-1. I had a 9mm pistol and was carrying a bag of plumbing tools from a job that I’d been doing, but I could not have stopped that fight without serious risk of injury to myself or to one or more of the participants. Two police cars arrived perhaps three or four minutes after my call. A crowd of bystanders/witnesses had gathered, so I told the police dispatcher how to reach me and that I would be happy to give a statement, if needed. I ended the call and left the scene.

Perhaps the most likely “stupid thing” that many of us have done is ignoring the little voice in our heads that told us that something was wrong about a situation, a person, or a place. A bad feeling about someone or something may mean that our subconscious mind has noted something that we have not firmly identified yet. A “funny feeling” is a good indicator that we should pause and take in what’s going on around us before moving forward. I’m sure that several readers of this can recall a time when a little voice in their head kept them out of a very bad situation.

Emotion and De-Escalation

“Anger is the Devil’s cocaine.”
— Andrew Klavan

A real danger in avoiding conflict is emotional investment. Screenwriter and commentator Andrew Klavan—in talking about the danger of anger—argues that righteous anger feels so good that it can push a person into doing something that they will deeply regret later. Many of us can relate to that idea, having said things in the heat of anger that we wish we could take back.

De-escalation is a vital skill for anyone interested in self-defense. People who have been in a fight or have witnessed horrible violence are much more likely to look for a way to cool emotions in a confrontation, rather than seeking a way to “win” at the other party’s expense. Scoring a “win” by verbally crushing someone may put them in a nothing-to-lose mindset and bring on a physical confrontation. How much better it would be to relieve the tension with an apology or some kind words, before things can get out of hand.

De-escalation is obviously not always appropriate, such as in the case of a violent, criminal attack, but it is entirely appropriate if the situation is a misunderstanding or a heated moment brought on by someone having too much to drink, or another driver cutting in front of us or following too closely. In a random confrontation of this sort, the moral approach is to look for a way to deflect the anger of others and to cool any anger within our own hearts. Escalating a misunderstanding is senseless, morally wrong, and would likely be very difficult to justify in either a court of law, or the court of public opinion.

PREPARATION

“We cannot get out. We cannot get out.”
The Fellowship of the Ring – by J.R.R. Tolkien, 1954

Preparation in regards to worst-case scenarios will mean different things to each of us. What I wish to cover here are not preparations related to weapons, tactics and confronting a worst case scenario. There are others who have already been mentioned herein—Jeff Cooper, John Farnam, Marc MacYoung—and others, such as Clint Smith and Massad Ayoob. All of them have written extensively about dealing with violent attacks and incidents and have collectively trained thousands of people. I encourage you to read their works. Cooper, Farnam and Ayoob have all written excellent after-action analyses of events that would qualify as worst case situations. You will find their insights very helpful.

I wish to focus on getting out of a situation where awareness and avoidance have failed, and we are faced with being plunged into a life-changing confrontation that does not need to happen. Preparation can give us some tools that we can apply to save ourselves and those who are in our care.

This brings me to a point about self-defense training and thinking. In most firearms and martial arts training, you are acting alone and defending yourself. As we move beyond very young adulthood, however, we are more likely to be with someone such as a spouse and children. Suddenly, the clear-cut, self-defense scenario becomes a complex nightmare of trying to protect the most important people in the world to you. As disturbing as the idea is, it’s necessary to imagine such a situation in order to devise a plan to deal with it.

Some basic preparations can improve your chances of removing yourself—and anyone in your care—from a dangerous situation should you find yourself facing a dire threat. Some of them may seem obvious when coldly considering things and under no stress, but under extreme stress we may find ourselves defaulting to less-than-rational decisions. Instead, we can make some decisions in advance and train our minds to think differently from what other people may be doing in a worst-case scenario.

Accept That It’s Happening

We covered this in normalcy bias, but it bears repeating. If you’re shopping or eating with your family and you all hear one or more loud BANGs, you should assume that it’s probably gunfire. Accept this possibility and immediately move everyone to a safer location—preferably to cover that will stop bullets, or at least to concealment that is not in the middle of a restaurant or other exposed location. Waiting and wondering if it was a gunshot is a dangerous delay at a time when immediate action is needed. Don’t be afraid of embarrassment at a sudden exit. IF it’s a false alarm, you can always apologize to management and make up an excuse (or tell the truth!).

Your Responsibility is to Your Family/Group

Focus on getting you and those with you out. It’s sad, but you can’t save everyone. If you see someone lost or confused on your way out and can point them in the right direction without risk to you or your family, that’s great, but keep your priorities in mind.

Know ALL the Exits

There is generally more than one way out of a public place. The best way out in an emergency may be the door marked “Do Not Enter” or “Employees Only.” These restrictions do not apply in an emergency, although most people will head toward the main entrance or toward marked “Emergency Exit” doors. Bad guys know this, so if the threat is a robbery or a mass shooter, the main exit may become a “fatal funnel.” In that case, going out through the kitchen or through the employee area may be the safest route. [Hat tip to Michael Bane]

Have a GO Signal

Swift action without hesitation is likely to make the difference between life and death. In your family or group of friends, have a “GO” signal—like a phrase for emergencies. When they hear this, it’s time for everyone to drop everything and follow you out. It means that there’s an emergency and we need to leave NOW—no questions or discussion. You should practice it occasionally, especially with small children. Make it like a game, and do your trial runs in a place like a picnic table at a park. With small kids, maybe a good, quiet exit means you all go for ice cream. [Hat tip to Tom Givens]

Cover Has a Time Limit

Getting everyone behind bullet-resistant cover is great, but it’s temporary protection. Bad guys are mobile and will probably get a shot at you eventually. Don’t camp out behind cover. Use the time there to find the next piece of cover on your way out. [Hat tip to Michael Bane]

Some Bad Guys May Be Hidden

A civilian carrying a concealed handgun attempted to stop a mass shooter several years ago. The bad guy’s girlfriend shot the concealed carrier from behind, if I remember correctly. A smart bad guy—or bad guys—may hide someone in the crowd to deal with anyone—like an off-duty cop or armed civilian—who tries to intervene. Be on the lookout for surprise bad guys when escaping.

Should You Intervene?

If you’re with family, my answer is no. You should see to those you’re responsible for first. If you get them out and then decide to go back into a situation, be aware that you may end up like Rick Rescorla, who went back into the World Trade Center after evacuating the employees of Morgan Stanley from the 44th floor of the South Tower. You’re entering an unknown, hostile situation where threats may lie hidden, looking for people like you. There’s also the risk a responding police officer—or an off-duty officer—may see you with a gun and shoot at you, thinking that you’re a bad guy.

CONCLUSION

“I don’t believe in the no-win scenario.”
— “Captain Kirk” in Star Trek II: The Wrath of Khan (1982 movie)

Awareness, avoidance, and preparation require practice before they become effective tools. I recommend visiting Marc MacYoung’s website: No Nonsense Self-Defense (http://nononsenseselfdefense.com/) for good information on crime and victimization. Jeff Cooper’s White/Yellow/Orange/Red Color Code is explained in a bunch of places on the Internet. John Farnam’s Quips are also highly recommended. Think about these concepts and practice them! You’ll enjoy life more if you pay attention and take a break from your phone when out in public.

Awareness, avoidance and preparation are not a 100% solution, but you can’t lose a fight if it’s unnecessary and you don’t show up for it! As happened to Balin’s group of dwarves in the Mines of Moria in the book The Fellowship of the Ring, sometimes you do everything you can and it isn’t enough. Better, however, is to approach it like Captain Kirk when talking about the Kobayashi Maru training scenario. If you don’t accept that you can be defeated, perhaps you will still find a way.

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